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Table 2 Adjusted relative risks and ratios of relative risks, population-based fatal crash involvement rates of older drivers associated with changes in driver license renewal policies, United States, 1986–2011

From: Driver license renewal policies and fatal crash involvement rates of older drivers, United States, 1986–2011

  Driver Age (years)
  40-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
  Ratio of relative risks (95% confidence interval)
Renewal period (1 year reduction) Reference 0.99 (0.92–1.08) 1.03 (0.97–1.10) 1.00 (0.93–1.08) 1.05 (0.95–1.17) 0.96 (0.88–1.06) 0.94 (0.88–1.00) 0.95 (0.89–1.02)
In-person renewal - 1.01 (0.77–1.33) 0.86 (0.66–1.11) 0.85 (0.65–1.10) 0.92 (0.69–1.23) 0.74 (0.48–1.15) 0.91 (0.67–1.24) 0.69 (0.48–0.97)
Vision testing (overall) - 1.01 (0.86–1.20) 1.08 (0.89–1.29) 1.06 (0.92–1.23) 1.00 (0.84–1.19) 1.05 (0.79–1.40) 0.93 (0.80–1.07) 0.93 (0.78–1.10)
Vision testing (at in-person renewal) - 1.01 (0.83–1.23) 1.13 (0.93–1.38) 1.16 (0.96–1.39) 0.98 (0.81–1.18) 1.15 (0.85–1.56) 0.98 (0.80–1.19) 1.06 (0.84–1.32)
Vision testing (without in-person renewal) - 1.03 (0.76–1.39) 0.98 (0.67–1.44) 0.91 (0.70–1.19) 1.06 (0.70–1.61) 0.85 (0.41–1.76) 0.81 (0.63–1.03) 0.64 (0.49–0.85)
Knowledge test (at in-person renewal) - 0.83 (0.55–1.26) 0.98 (0.74–1.28) 0.98 (0.64–1.51) 0.95 (0.76–1.19) 0.89 (0.70–1.13) 0.93 (0.74–1.17) 0.97 (0.76–1.24)
On-road driving test (at in-person renewal) a - - - - - - - -
Mandatory reporting law for physicians b - 1.03 (0.87–1.23) 1.01 (0.86–1.19) 0.98 (0.83–1.16) 1.03 (0.88–1.21) 1.00 (0.86–1.16) 0.98 (0.84–1.15) 0.96 (0.82–1.14)
  Adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval)
Renewal period (1 year reduction) 1.03 (0.98–1.09) 1.03 (0.97–1.09) 1.07 (1.02–1.11) 1.03 (0.98–1.09) 1.09 (1.00–1.19) 1.00 (0.92–1.08) 0.97 (0.93–1.01) 0.99 (0.95–1.03)
In-person renewal 1.05 (0.84–1.31) 1.06 (0.91–1.25) 0.90 (0.79–1.03) 0.89 (0.78–1.02) 0.97 (0.80–1.16) 0.78 (0.54–1.14) 0.96 (0.77–1.19) 0.72 (0.55–0.94)
Vision testing (overall) 0.96 (0.86–1.07) 0.97 (0.85–1.10) 1.03 (0.89–1.20) 1.02 (0.93–1.12) 0.96 (0.83–1.10) 1.01 (0.78–1.31) 0.89 (0.80–0.98) 0.89 (0.77–1.02)
Vision testing (at in-person renewal) 0.94 (0.80–1.11) 0.95 (0.85–1.06) 1.06 (0.95–1.19) 1.09 (1.00–1.18) 0.92 (0.84–1.01) 1.08 (0.83–1.40) 0.92 (0.82–1.03) 0.99 (0.85–1.16)
Vision testing (without in-person renewal) 0.99 (0.87–1.12) 1.01 (0.77–1.34) 0.97 (0.68–1.39) 0.90 (0.71–1.14) 1.05 (0.70–1.56) 0.84 (0.41–1.72) 0.80 (0.65–0.98) 0.64 (0.50–0.81)
Knowledge test (at in-person renewal) 1.13 (0.93–1.38) 0.94 (0.65–1.36) 1.11 (0.92–1.33) 1.11 (0.76–1.62) 1.07 (0.97–1.18) 1.01 (0.89–1.15) 1.05 (0.94–1.18) 1.10 (0.94–1.27)
On-road driving test (at in-person renewal) - - - - 1.00 (0.93–1.08) 0.96 (0.85–1.07) 1.09 (0.97–1.23) 1.02 (0.92–1.14)
Mandatory reporting law for physicians b 1.07 (0.94–1.21) 1.10 (0.99–1.24) 1.08 (0.98–1.20) 1.05 (0.94–1.17) 1.11 (1.01–1.21) 1.07 (0.98–1.16) 1.05 (0.96–1.16) 1.03 (0.93–1.14)
  1. Data: Fatal crashes: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ([2013]); population: (U.S. Census Bureau [2011]); driver licensing policies: surveys of states.
  2. Adjusted relative risks estimated using population-averaged negative binomial regression, adjusted for: age-specific seasonal effects and linear time trends; per se blood alcohol concentration laws; unemployment rates; per-capita personal income; age-specific effects of gasoline prices, maximum Interstate highway speed limits, all other variables in table, and within-state means of all time-varying variables; standardized to the observed distribution of all variables except row variable.
  3. Alabama, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Oklahoma, and South Carolina were excluded for all years; Georgia was excluded for years 1986–1992.
  4. a. Ratios of relative risks could not be computed for on-road driving tests because no state required drivers in the reference group to pass an on-road driving test at routine in-person license renewal at any time during the study period.
  5. b. Adjusted relative risk for mandatory reporting law for physicians represents ratio of adjusted fatal crash involvement rate with versus without mandatory reporting law as no state enacted or repealed a mandatory reporting law during the study period; all other adjusted relative risks represent changes in adjusted fatal crash involvement rates associated with changes in corresponding policies.