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Table 1 Annual number of deaths and mortality rate per 100,000 population from unintentional drug overdose in the United States, 1980–2011, with projections to 2035

From: Applying Farr’s Law to project the drug overdose mortality epidemic in the United States

Year

Deaths a

First Ratio b

Second Ratio c

Deaths per 100,000

1980

6094

  

2.8

1981

6227

1.0218

 

2.8

1982

6299

1.0116

0.9900

2.8

1983

6445

1.0232

1.0115

2.8

1984

6723

1.0431

1.0195

2.9

1985

7082

1.0534

1.0098

3.0

1986

7969

1.1252

1.0682

3.3

1987

7920

0.9939

0.8832

3.3

1988

9031

1.1403

1.1473

3.7

1989

9275

1.0270

0.9007

3.7

1990

8413

0.9071

0.8832

3.4

1991

9392

1.1164

1.2308

3.7

1992

10604

1.1290

1.0114

4.1

1993

12133

1.1442

1.0134

4.7

1994

12714

1.0479

0.9158

4.8

1995

12779

1.0051

0.9592

4.8

1996

13227

1.0351

1.0298

4.9

1997

14445

1.0921

1.0551

5.3

1998

15315

1.0602

0.9708

5.5

1999

16849

1.1002

1.0377

6.0

2000

17415

1.0336

0.9395

6.2

2001

19394

1.1136

1.0774

6.8

2002

23518

1.2126

1.0889

8.2

2003

25785

1.0964

0.9041

8.9

2004

27424

1.0636

0.9701

9.4

2005

29813

1.0871

1.0221

10.1

2006

34425

1.1547

1.0622

11.5

2007

36010

1.0460

0.9059

12.0

2008

36450

1.0122

0.9677

12.0

2009

37004

1.0152

1.0029

12.1

2010

38329

1.0358

1.0203

12.4

2011

41340

1.0786

1.0413

13.3

2012

44035

1.0652

0.9876

14.1

2013

46323

1.0520

0.9876

14.9

2014

48127

1.0389

0.9876

15.4

2015

49380

1.0260

0.9876

15.8

2016

50038

1.0133

0.9876

16.1

2017

50076

1.0008

0.9876

16.1

2018

49493

0.9883

0.9876

15.9

2019

48310

0.9761

0.9876

15.5

2020

46570

0.9640

0.9876

14.9

2021

44336

0.9520

0.9876

14.2

2022

41686

0.9402

0.9876

13.4

2023

38709

0.9286

0.9876

12.4

2024

35498

0.9171

0.9876

11.4

2025

32150

0.9057

0.9876

10.3

2026

28757

0.8945

0.9876

9.2

2027

25403

0.8834

0.9876

8.2

2028

22162

0.8724

0.9876

7.1

2029

19095

0.8616

0.9876

6.1

2030

16248

0.8509

0.9876

5.2

2031

13654

0.8404

0.9876

4.4

2032

11332

0.8299

0.9876

3.6

2033

9288

0.8196

0.9876

3.0

2034

7519

0.8095

0.9876

2.4

2035

6011

0.7994

0.9876

1.9

  1. a2011 United States population is used to calculate the annual number of deaths projected for 2012–2035.
  2. bPercent increase in the mortality rate from the previous year, calculated as deaths in the current year/deaths in the previous year. For example, from 1981 to 1982 the mortality rate increased by a factor of 1.0116 (=6299/6227). Since 1980 is the baseline for this analysis, its first ratio is undefined.
  3. cAcceleration (rate of change) of the first ratio, calculated as first ratio for the current year/first ratio for the previous year. For example, from 1981 to 1982 the acceleration in the mortality rate was 0.9900 (=1.0116/1.0218). The second ratios for 1980–1981 are undefined. The second ratio for 2011–2035 is chosen as the mean of the five second ratios for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.