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Table 1 Annual number of deaths and mortality rate per 100,000 population from unintentional drug overdose in the United States, 1980–2011, with projections to 2035

From: Applying Farr’s Law to project the drug overdose mortality epidemic in the United States

Year Deaths a First Ratio b Second Ratio c Deaths per 100,000
1980 6094    2.8
1981 6227 1.0218   2.8
1982 6299 1.0116 0.9900 2.8
1983 6445 1.0232 1.0115 2.8
1984 6723 1.0431 1.0195 2.9
1985 7082 1.0534 1.0098 3.0
1986 7969 1.1252 1.0682 3.3
1987 7920 0.9939 0.8832 3.3
1988 9031 1.1403 1.1473 3.7
1989 9275 1.0270 0.9007 3.7
1990 8413 0.9071 0.8832 3.4
1991 9392 1.1164 1.2308 3.7
1992 10604 1.1290 1.0114 4.1
1993 12133 1.1442 1.0134 4.7
1994 12714 1.0479 0.9158 4.8
1995 12779 1.0051 0.9592 4.8
1996 13227 1.0351 1.0298 4.9
1997 14445 1.0921 1.0551 5.3
1998 15315 1.0602 0.9708 5.5
1999 16849 1.1002 1.0377 6.0
2000 17415 1.0336 0.9395 6.2
2001 19394 1.1136 1.0774 6.8
2002 23518 1.2126 1.0889 8.2
2003 25785 1.0964 0.9041 8.9
2004 27424 1.0636 0.9701 9.4
2005 29813 1.0871 1.0221 10.1
2006 34425 1.1547 1.0622 11.5
2007 36010 1.0460 0.9059 12.0
2008 36450 1.0122 0.9677 12.0
2009 37004 1.0152 1.0029 12.1
2010 38329 1.0358 1.0203 12.4
2011 41340 1.0786 1.0413 13.3
2012 44035 1.0652 0.9876 14.1
2013 46323 1.0520 0.9876 14.9
2014 48127 1.0389 0.9876 15.4
2015 49380 1.0260 0.9876 15.8
2016 50038 1.0133 0.9876 16.1
2017 50076 1.0008 0.9876 16.1
2018 49493 0.9883 0.9876 15.9
2019 48310 0.9761 0.9876 15.5
2020 46570 0.9640 0.9876 14.9
2021 44336 0.9520 0.9876 14.2
2022 41686 0.9402 0.9876 13.4
2023 38709 0.9286 0.9876 12.4
2024 35498 0.9171 0.9876 11.4
2025 32150 0.9057 0.9876 10.3
2026 28757 0.8945 0.9876 9.2
2027 25403 0.8834 0.9876 8.2
2028 22162 0.8724 0.9876 7.1
2029 19095 0.8616 0.9876 6.1
2030 16248 0.8509 0.9876 5.2
2031 13654 0.8404 0.9876 4.4
2032 11332 0.8299 0.9876 3.6
2033 9288 0.8196 0.9876 3.0
2034 7519 0.8095 0.9876 2.4
2035 6011 0.7994 0.9876 1.9
  1. a2011 United States population is used to calculate the annual number of deaths projected for 2012–2035.
  2. bPercent increase in the mortality rate from the previous year, calculated as deaths in the current year/deaths in the previous year. For example, from 1981 to 1982 the mortality rate increased by a factor of 1.0116 (=6299/6227). Since 1980 is the baseline for this analysis, its first ratio is undefined.
  3. cAcceleration (rate of change) of the first ratio, calculated as first ratio for the current year/first ratio for the previous year. For example, from 1981 to 1982 the acceleration in the mortality rate was 0.9900 (=1.0116/1.0218). The second ratios for 1980–1981 are undefined. The second ratio for 2011–2035 is chosen as the mean of the five second ratios for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.