Table 1 Major assumptions and their justifications used to build our Markov microsimulation models

Driverless autonomous vehicles (AVs) will have a higher minor crash rate than human piloted vehicles

Minor crash rates of human-piloted vehicles are very difficult to estimate as most go unreported. Simulations from Waymo show lower crash rates, but the company has a financial stake in such outcomes. Reported minor crash rates for Waymo showed higher rates in AVs as compared to HPVs. The Waymo dataset is a key data source for this study.

2 million miles of driving is adequate for inference regarding the safety of AVs

We used established formulas to extrapolate probabilities of injury and death using observed mean crash speeds for AVs.

If adopted today, AVs would eliminate most parking spaces

AVs can be rented as taxis by private car owners when not being used.

The cost of autonomous vehicles will decline following Moore’s law

The efficiency and cost of many technologies follows Moore’s law for central processing unit speeds.

Used cars will have a similar market, whether human piloted or autonomous

While technologies in AV have few moving parts, they tend to decline in value as fast as automobiles do because the technology becomes dated very quickly.

Autonomous vehicles without a human driver will increase productivity

When the driver’s seat can hold a paying passenger, the additional passenger will sometimes perform work on a device (e.g., emailing colleagues).

AVs and human-piloted vehicles are of similar quality of build

The build of a car can also influence the probability of injury and death. In current use, AV equipment seems to be used across a span of makes and models.