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Table 2 Selected costs and probabilities used in the Markov microsimulation model

From: Autonomous vehicles are cost-effective when used as taxis

  Low Value Base Value High Value
Selected Costs ($)a
 Property Damage Only Crash (Blincoe et al. 2015) 2976 4251 5526
 Minor Injury Crash (Blincoe et al. 2015) 3129 12,282 61,352
 Severe Injury Crash (Blincoe et al. 2015) 200,241 274,553 1,101,865
 Fatal Crash (Blincoe et al. 2015) 1,072,412 1,532,018 1,991,623
 Property Damage Only Crash AV (Blincoe et al. 2015; Greenblatt and Saxena 2015; Vallet 2016) 3123 4461 5799
 Minor Injury Crash AV (Blincoe et al. 2015; Greenblatt and Saxena 2015; Vallet 2016) 3864 13,332 62,717
 Severe Injury Crash AV (Blincoe et al. 2015; Greenblatt and Saxena 2015; Vallet 2016) 214,206 294,503 1,127,800
 Fatal Crash AV (Blincoe et al. 2015; Greenblatt and Saxena 2015; Vallet 2016) 1,086,965 1,552,808 2,018,650
 Autonomous Vehicle (Greenblatt and Saxena 2015) 122,218 183,666 265,648
 Autonomous Vehicle in 5 Years (Greenblatt and Saxena 2015; Strawn and Strawn 2015) 33,229 56,539 100,383
 Human Piloted Vehicle (New-car transaction prices up 2 percent in march 2016, along with increases in incentive spend, according to Kelley blue book [press release] 2016) 17,218 33,666 70,648
 Annual Cost of Owning Car (American Automobile Association 2014)   8536  
 Funeral (National Funeral Directors Association 2017) 6206 7332 8687
 Productivity (United States Office of Personnel Management n.d.; American Automobile Association 2015; Proctor et al. 2016) 552 1657 2762
 Parking spot for non-taxi (The Economist 2017; Chester et al. 2010) 47,600 102,000 176,800
 Parking spot for taxi (The Economist 2017; Chester et al. 2010) 0 30,000 80,000
 Taxi Salary (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015) 19,432 27,760 36,088
 Cost of Taxi (New-car transaction prices up 2 percent in march 2016, along with increases in incentive spend, according to Kelley blue book [press release] 2016; New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission 2014) 92,699 132,427 172,155
 Cost of AV Taxi (Greenblatt and Saxena 2015; New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission 2014) 197,699 282,427 367,155
Selected Probabilities
 Human Piloted Vehicle (Blincoe et al. 2015; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 2016)
  Crash 0.0646
  Property Damage Only Crash 0.6091
  Minor Injury from Crash 0.3766
  Severe Injury from Crash 0.0090
  Death from Crash 0.0054
 Autonomous Vehicle (Waymo 2016b)
  Crash 0.06729 0.08385 0.09319
  Property Damage Only Crash 0.9551 0.9654 0.9777
  Minor Injury from Crash 0.0220 0.0315 0.0409
  Severe Injury from Crash 2.09E-04 2.99E-03 3.88E-03
  Death from Crash 6.48E-05 9.26E-05 1.20E-04
  1. aAll costs have been rounded to the nearest 2016 dollar