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Table 3 The cost, quality-adjusted life years gained, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) from our microsimulation models (based on 10,000 microsumulations) for human piloted vehicles (HPVs) versus: privately-owned autonomous vehicles (AVs), AVs 5 years in the future, and AV taxis. The final simulation compares human piloted taxis versus AV taxiss

From: Autonomous vehicles are cost-effective when used as taxis

  Cost 95% CI QALYs 95% CI ICER
   2.50% 97.50%   2.50% 97.50%  
Human-Piloted Vehicles Versus AVs
 HPVs 286,146 155,949 653,505 16.41 0.99 28.18  
 AVs 425,757 288,479 594,010 16.51 1.47 28.34 1,396,110
 AVs in 5 Yearsa 303,535 173,959 613,182 16.51 1.47 28.34 173,890
 AV Taxis 447,667 306,002 634,870 16.51 1.47 28.34 1,615,210
Human-Piloted Taxis Versus AV Taxis
 HPT 570,032 222,787 1,205,646 16.41 0.99 28.18  
 AV Taxis 447,667 306,002 634,870 16.51 1.47 28.34 Saves money and QALYs
  1. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in this analysis are only useful insofar as they inform consumers of the value of an AV relative to a conventional car on the grounds of the best available health data. These data are subject to considerable uncertainty
  2. aAVs were assumed to fall in price according to Moore’s Law, but were not assigned increased effectiveness