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Table 3 Comparison of the expected (model-based) to observed number of injuries in the nine states from 2005 to 2010

From: Public health application of predictive modeling: an example from farm vehicle crashes

State Total occupants (N) Observed injuries or deaths (N) Non-modifiable (Model 1)
QIC = 10,844.4
AUC = 0.69 (0.68, 0.71)
Non + semi-modifiable (Model 2)
QIC = 10,077.4
AUC = 0.75 (0.74, 0.76)
Non + semi + modifiable (Model 3)
QIC = 9676.8
AUC = 0.78 (0.76, 0.79)
Avg. pred. Prob. Expected injuries/ deaths (N) Avg. pred. Prob. Expected injuries/ deaths (N) Avg. pred. Prob. Expected injuries/ deaths (N)
IA 2279 421 0.1804 411 0.1820 415 0.1818 414
IL 2651 421 0.1600 424 0.1602 425 0.1594 422
KS 1477 186 0.1251 185 0.1246 184 0.1242 183
MN 1887 199 0.1008 190 0.1044 197 0.1017 192
MO 1893 207 0.1135 215 0.1169 221 0.1197 227
ND 482 51 0.1052 51 0.1066 51 0.1064 51
NE 1159 189 0.1634 189 0.1641 190 0.1619 188
SD 453 74 0.1549 70 0.1586 72 0.1592 72
WI 2553 339 0.1383 353 0.1367 349 0.1365 348
Total 14,834 2087 0.1408 2089 0.1419 2104 0.1415 2099
  1. Abbreviations: Avg. pred. Prob. Average predicted probability, AUC Area under the receiver operating curve, QIC Quasi-likelihood information criteria