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Table 3 Comparison of the expected (model-based) to observed number of injuries in the nine states from 2005 to 2010

From: Public health application of predictive modeling: an example from farm vehicle crashes

State

Total occupants (N)

Observed injuries or deaths (N)

Non-modifiable (Model 1)

QIC = 10,844.4

AUC = 0.69 (0.68, 0.71)

Non + semi-modifiable (Model 2)

QIC = 10,077.4

AUC = 0.75 (0.74, 0.76)

Non + semi + modifiable (Model 3)

QIC = 9676.8

AUC = 0.78 (0.76, 0.79)

Avg. pred. Prob.

Expected injuries/ deaths (N)

Avg. pred. Prob.

Expected injuries/ deaths (N)

Avg. pred. Prob.

Expected injuries/ deaths (N)

IA

2279

421

0.1804

411

0.1820

415

0.1818

414

IL

2651

421

0.1600

424

0.1602

425

0.1594

422

KS

1477

186

0.1251

185

0.1246

184

0.1242

183

MN

1887

199

0.1008

190

0.1044

197

0.1017

192

MO

1893

207

0.1135

215

0.1169

221

0.1197

227

ND

482

51

0.1052

51

0.1066

51

0.1064

51

NE

1159

189

0.1634

189

0.1641

190

0.1619

188

SD

453

74

0.1549

70

0.1586

72

0.1592

72

WI

2553

339

0.1383

353

0.1367

349

0.1365

348

Total

14,834

2087

0.1408

2089

0.1419

2104

0.1415

2099

  1. Abbreviations: Avg. pred. Prob. Average predicted probability, AUC Area under the receiver operating curve, QIC Quasi-likelihood information criteria