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Table 2 Treatment vs. synthetic control: stop profile, crash outcome, and crime outcomes

From: Re-prioritizing traffic stops to reduce motor vehicle crash outcomes and racial disparities

  Fayetteville Police Department Synthetic Control Difference between Fayetteville and Synthetic Control
Pre-intervention annual average Post-intervention annual average Post-intervention annual average Annual Difference Percent Change and 95% CI (%) Linear test p-value Permutation test p-value
Traffic Stop Profile
 Total Safety Stops 13,968 (100%) 34,930 (100%) 15,786 (100%) + 19,144 + 121.3 (+ 17.1, + 318.1) 0.0055 < 0.0001
 % Safety Stops 6119 (43.8%) 23,786 (68.1%) 7296 (46.2%) + 21.9% + 47.3 (+ 20.0, + 80.9) 0.0001 < 0.0001
 % Regulatory & Equip. Stops 6073 (43.5%) 9583 (27.4%) 6951 (44%) −16.6% −37.7 (−54.6, − 14.5) 0.0012 < 0.0001
 % Discretionary 1776 (12.7%) 1562 (4.5%) 1367 (8.7%) −4.2% −48.4 (−55.5, − 40.1) < 0.0001 < 0.0001
Measures of Traffic Stop Disparity
 % Black non-Hispanic Stops 56.8% 54.7% 58.8% −4.1% −7.0 (−8.9, −5.0) < 0.0001 0.250
 Black non-Hispanic TSRR 2.5 2.2 2.8 n/a −21.3 (−28.5, −13.3) < 0.0001 0.125
Motor Vehicle Crash Outcomes
 Crashes (all) 5298 (100%) 5160 (100%) 5925 (100%) −765.0 −12.9 (−37.5, + 21.3) 0.4439 0.125
 Crashes (w/ injuries) 1886 (35.6%) 1639 (31.8%) 2118 (41%) −479.3 −22.6 (−48.5, + 16.3) 0.2763 0.125
 Traffic Fatalities 62.3 48.8 68.0 −19.3 −28.3 (−64.1, + 43.2) 0.4146 0.125
Crime Outcomes
 Violent Crimes 1223.6 1233.5 1257.3 −23.8 −1.9 (−32.8, + 43.2) 0.9218 > 0.99
 Violent Crime Rate (per 1000) 730.5 596.9 582.4 + 14.5 + 2.5 (−14.0, + 22.2) 0.7815 0.750
 Index Crimes 13,367.4 11,658.0 12,896.4 − 1238.4 −9.6 (−24.5, + 8.2) 0.2923 0.500
 Index Crime Rate (per 1000) 7848.1 5637.3 5933.4 −296.1 −5.0 (−12.8, + 3.5) 0.2482 0.750
  1. Table includes both annual averages pre-intervention (2002–2012) and post-intervention (2013–2016). Note: confidence intervals are not symmetrical around point estimates because different methods were used to produce each and small numbers further limited convergence