Table 2 Treatment vs. synthetic control: stop profile, crash outcome, and crime outcomes
From: Re-prioritizing traffic stops to reduce motor vehicle crash outcomes and racial disparities
| Â | Fayetteville Police Department | Synthetic Control | Difference between Fayetteville and Synthetic Control | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-intervention annual average | Post-intervention annual average | Post-intervention annual average | Annual Difference | Percent Change and 95% CI (%) | Linear test p-value | Permutation test p-value | ||
Traffic Stop Profile | ||||||||
 Total Safety Stops | 13,968 (100%) | 34,930 (100%) | 15,786 (100%) | + 19,144 | + 121.3 | (+ 17.1, + 318.1) | 0.0055 | < 0.0001 |
 % Safety Stops | 6119 (43.8%) | 23,786 (68.1%) | 7296 (46.2%) | + 21.9% | + 47.3 | (+ 20.0, + 80.9) | 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
 % Regulatory & Equip. Stops | 6073 (43.5%) | 9583 (27.4%) | 6951 (44%) | −16.6% | −37.7 | (−54.6, − 14.5) | 0.0012 | < 0.0001 |
 % Discretionary | 1776 (12.7%) | 1562 (4.5%) | 1367 (8.7%) | −4.2% | −48.4 | (−55.5, − 40.1) | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 |
Measures of Traffic Stop Disparity | ||||||||
 % Black non-Hispanic Stops | 56.8% | 54.7% | 58.8% | −4.1% | −7.0 | (−8.9, −5.0) | < 0.0001 | 0.250 |
 Black non-Hispanic TSRR | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | n/a | −21.3 | (−28.5, −13.3) | < 0.0001 | 0.125 |
Motor Vehicle Crash Outcomes | ||||||||
 Crashes (all) | 5298 (100%) | 5160 (100%) | 5925 (100%) | −765.0 | −12.9 | (−37.5, + 21.3) | 0.4439 | 0.125 |
 Crashes (w/ injuries) | 1886 (35.6%) | 1639 (31.8%) | 2118 (41%) | −479.3 | −22.6 | (−48.5, + 16.3) | 0.2763 | 0.125 |
 Traffic Fatalities | 62.3 | 48.8 | 68.0 | −19.3 | −28.3 | (−64.1, + 43.2) | 0.4146 | 0.125 |
Crime Outcomes | ||||||||
 Violent Crimes | 1223.6 | 1233.5 | 1257.3 | −23.8 | −1.9 | (−32.8, + 43.2) | 0.9218 | > 0.99 |
 Violent Crime Rate (per 1000) | 730.5 | 596.9 | 582.4 | + 14.5 | + 2.5 | (−14.0, + 22.2) | 0.7815 | 0.750 |
 Index Crimes | 13,367.4 | 11,658.0 | 12,896.4 | − 1238.4 | −9.6 | (−24.5, + 8.2) | 0.2923 | 0.500 |
 Index Crime Rate (per 1000) | 7848.1 | 5637.3 | 5933.4 | −296.1 | −5.0 | (−12.8, + 3.5) | 0.2482 | 0.750 |