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Table 2 Treatment vs. synthetic control: stop profile, crash outcome, and crime outcomes

From: Re-prioritizing traffic stops to reduce motor vehicle crash outcomes and racial disparities

 Fayetteville Police DepartmentSynthetic ControlDifference between Fayetteville and Synthetic Control
Pre-intervention annual averagePost-intervention annual averagePost-intervention annual averageAnnual DifferencePercent Change and 95% CI (%)Linear test p-valuePermutation test p-value
Traffic Stop Profile
 Total Safety Stops13,968 (100%)34,930 (100%)15,786 (100%)+ 19,144+ 121.3(+ 17.1, + 318.1)0.0055< 0.0001
 % Safety Stops6119 (43.8%)23,786 (68.1%)7296 (46.2%)+ 21.9%+ 47.3(+ 20.0, + 80.9)0.0001< 0.0001
 % Regulatory & Equip. Stops6073 (43.5%)9583 (27.4%)6951 (44%)−16.6%−37.7(−54.6, − 14.5)0.0012< 0.0001
 % Discretionary1776 (12.7%)1562 (4.5%)1367 (8.7%)−4.2%−48.4(−55.5, − 40.1)< 0.0001< 0.0001
Measures of Traffic Stop Disparity
 % Black non-Hispanic Stops56.8%54.7%58.8%−4.1%−7.0(−8.9, −5.0)< 0.00010.250
 Black non-Hispanic TSRR2.52.22.8n/a−21.3(−28.5, −13.3)< 0.00010.125
Motor Vehicle Crash Outcomes
 Crashes (all)5298 (100%)5160 (100%)5925 (100%)−765.0−12.9(−37.5, + 21.3)0.44390.125
 Crashes (w/ injuries)1886 (35.6%)1639 (31.8%)2118 (41%)−479.3−22.6(−48.5, + 16.3)0.27630.125
 Traffic Fatalities62.348.868.0−19.3−28.3(−64.1, + 43.2)0.41460.125
Crime Outcomes
 Violent Crimes1223.61233.51257.3−23.8−1.9(−32.8, + 43.2)0.9218> 0.99
 Violent Crime Rate (per 1000)730.5596.9582.4+ 14.5+ 2.5(−14.0, + 22.2)0.78150.750
 Index Crimes13,367.411,658.012,896.4− 1238.4−9.6(−24.5, + 8.2)0.29230.500
 Index Crime Rate (per 1000)7848.15637.35933.4−296.1−5.0(−12.8, + 3.5)0.24820.750
  1. Table includes both annual averages pre-intervention (2002–2012) and post-intervention (2013–2016). Note: confidence intervals are not symmetrical around point estimates because different methods were used to produce each and small numbers further limited convergence
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