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Table 1 Annualized estimates of homicide and suicide, substance-related arrests and misdemeanors, and firearm carrying and ownership from the agent-based model and empirical data sources

From: Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation

 

Model estimates (95% CI)a

Empirical estimates

Firearm-related homicide (rate/100,000)

4.11 (4.09, 4.14)

3.96b

Firearm-related suicide (rate/100,000)

1.01 (1.00, 1.02)

0.98b

Alcohol-related misdemeanor (rate/100,000)

115.1 (114.9, 115.2)

116.1c

Alcohol-related arrest (rate/100,000)

134.7 (134.6, 134.7)

134.9c

Drug-related misdemeanor (rate/100,000)

525.0 (524.6, 525.4)

525.7c

Drug-related arrest (rate/100,000)

1,329.0 (1,328.1, 1,329.9)

1.329.1c

Firearm ownership (%)

21.94 (21.91, 21.95)

22.03d

Firearm carrying status (%)

3.92 (3.91, 3.92)

3.94d

  1. aMean and 95% CI from 100 runs of ABM
  2. bCDC WONDER. Underlying Cause of Death (2008–2014)
  3. cNew York State Division of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS, 2011–2014)
  4. dNational Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R, 2001–2003)