Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation

Table 2 Simulation of gun-related homicide and suicide in New York City after implementation of substance-related ownership disqualifications, among the total agent population

Intervention	Gun-Related Homicide						Gun-Related Suicide
	Rate/100,000 (95% CI)			% Decrease (95% CI)			Rate/100,000 (95% CI)			% Decrease (95% CI)
	Mean	LL	UL	Mean	LL	UL	Mean	LL	UL	Mean	LL	UL
Baseline	4.11	4.09	4.14				1.01	1.00	1.02
DUI misdemeanor conviction Last yr, 5 yr duration	4.07	4.05	4.10	0.95	0.35	1.56	0.98	0.97	0.99	2.96	1.89	4.03
DUI misdemeanor conviction Last yr, 10 yr duration	4.06	4.04	4.09	1.28	0.67	1.88	0.96	0.95	0.97	4.63	3.47	5.80
2 + DUI mis conviction Last 5 yrs, 10 yr duration	4.08	4.05	4.11	0.84	0.19	1.48	0.98	0.97	0.99	2.84	1.67	4.00
Any DUI last yr, 5 yr duration	4.07	4.04	4.10	1.08	0.43	1.74	0.97	0.96	0.98	3.68	2.39	4.96
Any DUI last yr, 10 yr duration	4.04	4.01	4.06	1.84	1.22	2.45	0.96	0.95	0.97	4.78	3.41	6.14
2 + DUI last 5 yrs, 10 yr duration	4.08	4.05	4.11	0.84	0.17	1.51	1.00	0.99	1.01	0.69	− 0.54	1.93
Drug misdemeanor conviction Last yr, 5 yr duration	4.05	4.02	4.07	1.63	1.08	2.17	0.96	0.95	0.97	4.58	3.36	5.81
Drug misdemeanor conviction Last yr, 10 yr duration	4.00	3.98	4.03	2.66	2.05	3.27	0.95	0.94	0.96	5.90	4.70	7.11
2 + Drug misdemeanor conviction Last 5 yrs, 10 yr duration	4.09	4.06	4.11	0.70	0.06	1.33	0.99	0.98	1.00	2.09	0.98	3.21
Any Drug arrest last yr, 5 yr duration	3.92	3.90	3.95	4.65	4.07	5.23	0.92	0.91	0.93	8.52	7.33	9.72
Any Drug arrest last yr, 10 yr duration	3.92	3.89	3.95	4.75	4.10	5.40	0.90	0.89	0.91	10.76	9.45	12.07
2 + Drug arrest last 5 yrs, 10 yr duration	4.09	4.06	4.12	0.62	− 0.06	1.30	0.98	0.96	0.99	3.23	2.03	4.43

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