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Table 3 Simulation of gun-related homicide and suicide in New York City after implementation of substance-related ownership disqualifications, among high-risk groups

From: Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation

Intervention Gun-Related Homicide Gun-Related Suicide
  Rate/100,000 (95% CI) % Decrease (95% CI) Rate/100,000 (95% CI) % Decrease (95% CI)
  Mean LL UL Mean LL UL Mean LL UL Mean LL UL
Alcohol Misdemeanor
 Base: Alcohol misdemeanor conviction ever 8.45 8.29 8.62     2.07 1.99 2.15    
 Alcohol misdemeanor conviction ever, 5 yr duration 7.78 7.64 7.91 8.01 6.39 9.62 1.57 1.50 1.64 24.02 20.78 27.27
 Alcohol misdemeanor conviction ever, 10 yr duration 7.72 7.60 7.84 8.70 7.25 10.15 1.52 1.45 1.58 26.63 23.35 29.92
 Base: 2 + Alcohol misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever 8.22 7.25 9.20     5.31 4.73 5.89    
 2 + Alcohol misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever 5.91 5.31 6.51 28.09 20.80 35.39 3.25 2.79 3.72 38.75 30.02 47.48
Alcohol Arrest
 Base: Any Alcohol ever 6.05 5.85 6.25     2.92 2.80 3.05    
 Any Alcohol ever, 5 yr duration 4.63 4.50 4.77 23.43 21.22 25.63 1.90 1.79 2.01 35.01 31.38 38.64
 Any Alcohol ever, 10 yr duration 4.39 4.23 4.56 27.40 24.69 30.11 1.90 1.79 2.00 35.18 31.73 38.63
 Base: 2 + Alcohol in 5 years, ever 8.40 7.47 9.32     4.99 4.45 5.53    
 2 + Alcohol in 5 years, ever 5.74 5.05 6.44 31.59 23.32 39.86 3.15 2.67 3.62 36.96 27.42 46.51
Drug Misdemeanor
 Base: Drug misdemeanor conviction ever 9.48 9.40 9.55     1.60 1.57 1.63    
 Drug misdemeanor conviction ever, 5 yr duration 9.23 9.16 9.30 2.64 1.92 3.35 1.43 1.40 1.46 10.53 8.50 12.56
 Drug misdemeanor conviction ever, 10 yr duration 9.16 9.09 9.23 3.31 2.56 4.05 1.39 1.36 1.42 13.32 11.34 15.30
 Base: 2 + Drug misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever 12.36 11.89 12.83     3.11 2.87 3.34    
 2 + Drug misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever 11.80 11.39 12.22 4.50 1.16 7.84 2.56 2.35 2.77 17.72 10.96 24.47
Drug Arrest
 Base: Any Drug arrest ever 8.31 8.22 8.40     1.86 1.82 1.89    
 Any Drug arrest ever, 5 yr duration 7.40 7.33 7.48 10.93 10.04 11.82 1.42 1.38 1.45 23.73 21.73 25.73
 Any Drug arrest ever, 10 yr duration 7.28 7.19 7.37 12.42 11.37 13.47 1.35 1.32 1.39 27.13 25.27 28.98
 Base: 2 + Drug arrest in 5 years, ever 13.23 12.99 13.48     2.34 2.25 2.44    
 2 + Drug arrest in 5 years, ever 12.54 12.31 12.77 5.24 3.52 6.97 2.06 1.96 2.15 12.14 8.17 16.12