Fig. 2
From: Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model
Model calibration. Panel a shows the calibration of the model’s incidence of RTIs to the mean incidence of RTIs predicted by the GBD study between 2010 and 2019 in Malawi. Panel b shows the calibration of the model’s predicted proportion of RTIs involving males to the average proportion of males from the GBD estimates 2010–2019. Panel c shows the age distribution of those involved in RTIs. Panel d shows the proportion of RTIs involving alcohol. Panel e shows the calibration of the model’s predicted incidence of on-scene mortality to an estimate derived from Malawi’s police data (Schlottmann et al. 2017). Panel f shows the model’s predicted average number of injuries per person calibrated to results from Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) (Sundet et al. 2018). Panel g shows the calibration effort to produce HSB falling within the bounds reported in other SSA countries (Zafar et al. 2018). Finally, panel h shows the calibration of the model’s overall predicted mortality of those who have received treatment, taking the relationship between ISS scores and mortality reported by Kuwabara et al. (2010) and scaling this to the results from a national-scale study on mortality with treatment in Tanzania (Sawe et al. 2021)