Temporal trends in occupational injuries treated in US emergency departments, 2012–2019

Table 3 Trend analysis of monthly ED-treated occupational injury rates estimates per 10,000, 2012–2019^a

Injury type	ARIMA structure^b	Intercept	Trend parameter (± 95% CI)	Percent decrease, 2012–2019 (± 95% CI)^c
All injuries	(1,0,2)(1,0,0)₁₂	191.8	− 0.37 (± 0.29)	− 18.5% (± 14.5%)
Violence	(1,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂	15.9	− 0.01 (± 0.03)	− 6.2% (± 14.9%)
Transportation incidents	(1,0,0)(0,0,0)₁₂	5.9	− 0.01 (± 0.01)	− 23.2% (± 14.7%)
Falls, slips, and trips	(0,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂	30.9	− 0.06 (± 0.03)	− 18.1% (± 8.9%)
Exposure to harmful substances	(1,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂	18.4	− 0.02 (± 0.05)	− 9.3% (± 24.9%)
Contact with foreign objects and equipment	(1,0,3)(1,0,1)₁₂	68.1	− 0.19 (± 0.08)	− 26.9% (± 10.5%)
Overexertion and bodily reaction	(1,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂	51.3	− 0.06 (± 0.09)	− 12.6% (± 16.3%)

Significant values bolded
^aNumerator data (monthly ED-treated injury count estimates) are from the National Emergency Injury Surveillance System—Occupational Supplement (NEISS-Work) dataset and were produced using the R packages “survey” and “srvyr.” Denominator data (FTE) were obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS) via NIOSH Employed Labor Force querying system. Injury event type definitions are based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Injury and Illness Classification System version 2.01
^bAn ARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_m structure was used to control for serial correlation (e.g., seasonality) in monthly injury rate data, where p is the order of autocorrelation, d is the number of differences applied to the data, q is the order of moving average terms, P,D, and Q are the seasonal versions of these terms, and m is the order of seasonality (e.g., 12 for annually seasonality in monthly data). A linear trend parameter was used to measure overall decreases
^cCalculated by multiplying each model’s trend parameter and 95% CI by 96 (i.e., the total number of months in the study period) and calculating percent difference from the model’s intercept; significant decreases are bolded

ISSN: 2197-1714