Table 1 Multivariable adjusted characteristics associated with a handgun being picked up in a crime

Characteristics supplied by dealer

Average sales per year, per 1000

1.01 (1.01, 1.02)

11.9

0.001

1.04 (1.02, 1.06)

17.7

 < 0.0001

–

Average percent denials

1.04 (1.04, 1.05)

214.2

 < 0.0001

1.05 (1.04, 1.06)

140.2

 < 0.0001

1.04 (1.03, 1.05)

105.4

 < 0.0001

Average percent of handgun sales that are pawn redemptions

1.01 (1.00, 1.01)

8.0

0.005

1.02 (1.01, 1.03)

23.7

 < 0.0001

–

Average percent of handgun sales that are pawns

1.01 (1.00, 1.01)

14.5

0.0001

–

1.01 (1.01, 1.02)

50.3

 < 0.0001

Average percent of sales in calendar year that become crime guns that year

1.22 (1.16, 1.28)

55.6

 < 0.0001

1.20 (1.14, 1.26)

45.2

 < 0.0001

1.22 (1.16, 1.28)

57.6

 < 0.0001

Percent sales to police in the past year

Missing (dealership not open)

0.97 (0.91, 1.04)

0.7

0.41

1.01 (0.83, 1.23)

0

0.93

0.93 (0.85, 1.00)

3.6

0.06

 ≤ 5%

1.00 (0.96, 1.03)

0.1

0.79

1.08 (0.98, 1.19)

2.4

0.12

0.95 (0.91, 0.99)

6.6

0.01

 > 5–10%

1.10 (1.07, 1.13)

43.2

 < 0.0001

1.06 (0.97, 1.16)

1.6

0.20

1.07 (1.04, 1.11)

16.1

 < 0.0001

 > 10–20%

Reference

Reference

Reference

 > 20%

0.79 (0.76, 0.83)

106.8

 < 0.0001

0.78 (0.68, 0.9)

12.4

0.0004

0.75 (0.71, 0.79)

106.4

 < 0.0001

Characteristics of the firearm

Low-cost manufacturers

1.71 (1.63, 1.79)

512.2

 < 0.0001

1.73 (1.50, 1.99)

57.5

 < 0.0001

1.76 (1.66, 1.86)

376.6

 < 0.0001

Semiautomatic

1.17 (1.13, 1.21)

93.9

 < 0.0001

1.26 (1.14, 1.39)

19.1

 < 0.0001

1.21 (1.16, 1.26)

86.1

 < 0.0001

Caliber size

Small

Reference

Reference

Reference

Medium

1.22 (1.17, 1.27)

88.4

 < 0.0001

1.40 (1.22, 1.60)

23.5

 < 0.0001

1.13 (1.08, 1.19)

23.4

 < 0.0001

Large

1.28 (1.23, 1.34)

127.7

 < 0.0001

1.37 (1.19, 1.58)

19.5

 < 0.0001

1.23 (1.17, 1.30)

61.4

 < 0.0001

Any previous law enforcement holds

0.55 (0.52, 0.59)

293.9

 < 0.0001

0.61 (0.50, 0.75)

23.0

 < 0.0001

0.46 (0.42, 0.50)

308.1

 < 0.0001

Any previous intrafamilial transfer

0.66 (0.50, 0.88)

7.8

0.005

–

–

Any previous law enforcement release

1.16 (1.07, 1.27)

11.4

0.001

–

1.27 (1.14, 1.41)

18.9

 < 0.0001

Any previous lost

2.99 (2.54, 3.52)

174.2

 < 0.0001

3.41 (2.02, 5.76)

21.1

 < 0.0001

3.03 (2.51, 3.65)

135.2

 < 0.0001

Any previous pawn redemption

1.15 (1.01, 1.31)

4.7

0.03

–

0.58 (0.51, 0.66)

68.2

 < 0.0001

Any previous pawn

0.56 (0.49, 0.63)

77.9

 < 0.0001

0.64 (0.47, 0.86)

8.5

0.0035

–

Any previous stolen

8.93 (7.72, 10.34)

862.0

 < 0.0001

9.53 (5.70, 15.95)

73.6

 < 0.0001

8.56 (7.22, 10.14)

616.5

 < 0.0001

Characteristics of the purchaser

In possession of handgun

Age, per 10 years

0.71 (0.70, 0.72)

3628

 < 0.0001

0.72 (0.70, 0.74)

365.3

 < 0.0001

0.68 (0.67, 0.69)

2710

 < 0.0001

Female sex

1.37 (1.32, 1.41)

338.6

 < 0.0001

1.37 (1.24, 1.51)

38.5

 < 0.0001

1.41 (1.35, 1.47)

263.1

 < 0.0001

Citizen status

0.68 (0.63, 0.73)

105.1

 < 0.0001

0.67 (0.55, 0.81)

17.4

 < 0.0001

0.68 (0.62, 0.75)

62.4

 < 0.0001

Foreign born

0.95 (0.91, 0.99)

7.0

0.01

–

0.90 (0.86, 0.95)

15.4

 < 0.0001

Race and ethnicity

Asian

0.83 (0.79, 0.87)

53.2

 < 0.0001

0.95 (0.82, 1.09)

0.6

0.44

0.82 (0.76, 0.87)

38.0

 < 0.0001

Black

3.72 (3.59, 3.85)

5452

 < 0.0001

4.24 (3.82, 4.70)

731.1

 < 0.0001

4.06 (3.89, 4.24)

4143

 < 0.0001

Hispanic

1.43 (1.38, 1.47)

513.6

 < 0.0001

1.51 (1.37, 1.66)

73.6

 < 0.0001

1.43 (1.38, 1.49)

337.2

 < 0.0001

Native American/Pacific Islander

1.52 (1.40, 1.64)

103.4

 < 0.0001

1.44 (1.11, 1.87)

7.8

0.005

1.68 (1.52, 1.85)

110.6

 < 0.0001

Other

1.51 (1.38, 1.67)

72.3

 < 0.0001

1.85 (1.41, 2.42)

19.9

 < 0.0001

1.52 (1.34, 1.71)

45.4

 < 0.0001

White

Reference

Reference

Reference

Handguns bought in the last year

0

Reference

Reference

Reference

1

0.95 (0.91, 1.00)

4.5

0.03

0.85 (0.74, 0.98)

4.7

0.03

0.94 (0.89, 0.99)

4.7

0.03

2–5

0.73 (0.69, 0.77)

122.4

 < 0.0001

0.75 (0.63, 0.89)

10.6

0.001

0.71 (0.66, 0.76)

91.0

 < 0.0001

6–12

0.70 (0.62, 0.78)

38.5

 < 0.0001

0.71 (0.49, 1.01)

3.7

0.06

0.76 (0.66, 0.87)

15.4

 < 0.0001

 > 12

1.60 (1.42, 1.80)

60.0

 < 0.0001

0.27 (0.11, 0.66)

8.3

0.004

2.38 (2.10, 2.70)

183.2

 < 0.0001

First handgun purchase

1.34 (1.30, 1.38)

359.0

 < 0.0001

1.50 (1.37, 1.65)

73.7

 < 0.0001

1.27 (1.23, 1.32)

161.7

 < 0.0001

Criminal history, arrests

Infraction with no other charge, past 10 years

2.28 (2.03, 2.57)

183.8

 < 0.0001

2.68 (1.92, 3.75)

33.6

 < 0.0001

2.47 (2.15, 2.84)

160.6

 < 0.0001

Alcohol intoxication, past 10 years

1.88 (1.81, 1.95)

1118

 < 0.0001

1.84 (1.64, 2.06)

112.1

 < 0.0001

1.86 (1.78, 1.95)

697.5

 < 0.0001

Firearm-related, past 10 years

2.07 (1.92, 2.24)

339.6

 < 0.0001

1.85 (1.46, 2.35)

26.0

 < 0.0001

2.08 (1.89, 2.28)

231

 < 0.0001

Major violent crime, past 10 years

2.10 (1.95, 2.25)

436.7

 < 0.0001

2.49 (2.05, 3.03)

83.8

 < 0.0001

2.13 (1.96, 2.32)

307.6

 < 0.0001

Major property crime, past 10 years

2.36 (2.19, 2.54)

513.3

 < 0.0001

2.27 (1.81, 2.84)

50.7

 < 0.0001

2.49 (2.28, 2.72)

410.8

 < 0.0001

Distance to dealer

Missing

0.94 (0.90, 0.99)

5.1

0.02

1.11 (0.96, 1.28)

1.9

0.17

0.92 (0.86, 0.98)

7.3

0.007

 ≤ 5 miles

1.11 (1.08, 1.14)

64.3

 < 0.0001

1.12 (1.04, 1.22)

8.2

0.004

1.12 (1.09, 1.16)

48.5

 < 0.0001

5–20 miles

Reference

Reference

Reference

 > 20 miles

0.84 (0.81, 0.87)

106.9

 < 0.0001

0.90 (0.82, 1.00)

3.9

0.047

0.84 (0.80, 0.87)

69.3

 < 0.0001

Purchaser geographic characteristics

SVI¹, socioeconomic status, per 10 units

1.08 (1.07, 1.08)

329.6

 < 0.0001

1.07 (1.05, 1.09)

39.7

 < 0.0001

1.09 (1.08, 1.10)

279.9

 < 0.0001

SVI, housing status, per 10 units

1.00 (0.99, 1.00)

0.1

0.7005

–

1.01 (1.00, 1.02)

10.9

0.001

SVI, racial and ethnic minority status, per 10 units

1.05 (1.04, 1.05)

163.6

 < 0.0001

1.04 (1.02, 1.06)

15.0

0.0001

1.05 (1.04, 1.06)

113.7

 < 0.0001

SVI, housing type and transportation, per 10 units

1.03 (1.02, 1.03)

115.8

 < 0.0001

1.05 (1.03, 1.06)

33.5

 < 0.0001

1.02 (1.01, 1.02)

32.3

 < 0.0001

RUCA¹ code 1

1.34 (1.29, 1.39)

202.2

 < 0.0001

1.38 (1.22, 1.56)

25.4

 < 0.0001

1.32 (1.26, 1.39)

122.0

 < 0.0001

Not in possession of handgun

Age, per 10 years

0.94 (0.93, 0.96)

29.3

 < 0.0001

1.00 (0.93, 1.07)

0.0

0.91

0.93 (0.90, 0.95)

31.7

 < 0.0001

Female sex

1.05 (0.98, 1.13)

1.8

0.18

0.94 (0.74, 1.21)

0.2

0.65

1.05 (0.96, 1.15)

1.0

0.31

Citizen status

0.93 (0.78, 1.10)

0.8

0.38

0.99 (0.60, 1.62)

0.0

0.95

0.89 (0.71, 1.10)

1.2

0.27

Foreign born

0.90 (0.82, 0.98)

5.5

0.02

–

0.87 (0.78, 0.98)

5.3

0.02

Race and ethnicity

Asian

1.19 (1.07, 1.32)

10.9

0.001

1.66 (1.22, 2.25)

10.5

0.001

1.27 (1.11, 1.44)

12.8

0.0004

Black

1.19 (1.10, 1.29)

18.5

 < 0.0001

1.37 (1.05, 1.79)

5.4

0.02

1.28 (1.16, 1.41)

23.4

 < 0.0001

Hispanic

1.04 (0.97, 1.12)

1.3

0.25

1.26 (0.99, 1.59)

3.6

0.06

1.01 (0.92, 1.10)

0.0

0.87

Native American/Pacific Islander

1.05 (0.87, 1.27)

0.2

0.62

2.25 (1.38, 3.65)

10.7

0.001

1.00 (0.78, 1.28)

0.0

0.99

Other

1.05 (0.84, 1.31)

0.2

0.66

0.84 (0.35, 2.05)

0.1

0.71

1.16 (0.89, 1.52)

1.2

0.27

White

Reference

Reference

Reference

Handguns bought in the last year

0

Reference

Reference

Reference

1

1.04 (0.96, 1.13)

0.8

0.36

1.01 (0.75, 1.38)

0.0

0.93

1.05 (0.94, 1.16)

0.7

0.40

2–5

0.94 (0.85, 1.05)

1.1

0.29

0.98 (0.68, 1.43)

0.0

0.93

0.89 (0.78, 1.02)

2.8

0.09

6–12

0.71 (0.52, 0.97)

4.7

0.03

0.44 (0.11, 1.79)

1.32

0.25

0.76 (0.52, 1.11)

2.0

0.16

 > 12

0.65 (0.40, 1.05)

3.1

0.08

0.00 (0.00, 0.00)

3818

 < 0.0001

0.59 (0.31, 1.09)

2.8

0.09

First handgun purchase

1.15 (1.08, 1.22)

19.1

 < 0.0001

1.34 (1.09, 1.66)

7.42

0.01

1.13 (1.04, 1.22)

9.0

0.003

Criminal history, arrests

Infraction with no other charge, past 10 years

0.94 (0.66, 1.34)

0.1

0.73

1.28 (0.47, 3.44)

0.2

0.63

0.88 (0.56, 1.40)

0.3

0.59

Alcohol intoxication, past 10 years

0.94 (0.86, 1.03)

1.7

0.19

0.79 (0.57, 1.09)

2.1

0.15

0.93 (0.83, 1.04)

1.6

0.20

Firearm-related, past 10 years

0.81 (0.68, 0.96)

5.6

0.02

0.40 (0.17, 0.90)

4.8

0.03

0.81 (0.65, 1.01)

3.7

0.06

Major violent crime, past 10 years

0.83 (0.71, 0.97)

5.7

0.02

0.75 (0.43, 1.32)

1.0

0.33

0.84 (0.69, 1.02)

3.1

0.08

Major property crime, past 10 years

0.94 (0.78, 1.14)

0.4

0.54

1.28 (0.72, 2.26)

0.7

0.40

0.87 (0.69, 1.11)

1.3

0.26

Distance to dealer, km

Missing

1.01 (0.92, 1.10)

0.0

0.83

1.39 (1.04, 1.86)

5.0

0.03

0.97 (0.86, 1.08)

0.4

0.55

 ≤ 5 miles

1.02 (0.96, 1.09)

0.5

0.48

1.26 (1.03, 1.55)

4.8

0.03

1.03 (0.96, 1.11)

0.7

0.42

5–20 miles

Reference

Reference

Reference

 > 20 miles

0.95 (0.88, 1.02)

1.9

0.17

0.95 (0.73, 1.25)

0.1

0.73

0.98 (0.89, 1.08)

0.2

0.66

Purchaser geographic characteristics

SVI, socioeconomic status, per 10 units

0.97 (0.95, 0.99)

13.9

0.0002

0.94 (0.89, 0.98)

7.3

0.007

0.96 (0.94, 0.98)

11.5

0.0007

SVI, housing status, per 10 units

0.99 (0.98, 1.00)

4.4

0.03

–

1.00 (0.98, 1.01)

0.4

0.54

SVI, racial and ethnic minority status, per 10 units

1.05 (1.03, 1.07)

39.5

 < 0.0001

1.09 (1.04, 1.14)

12

0.0005

1.05 (1.03, 1.07)

22.6

 < 0.0001

SVI, housing type and transportation, per 10 units

1.00 (0.99, 1.01)

0.3

0.60

1.03 (0.99, 1.07)

2.5

0.11

1.00 (0.98, 1.01)

0.1

0.77

RUCA code 1

1.19 (1.09, 1.31)

14.2

0.0002

1.05 (0.77, 1.44)

0.1

0.76

1.20 (1.07, 1.34)

9.1

0.003