Table 2 Results of ARIMA models examining impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and Subway Safety Plan on NYPD Transit Bureau complaints and arrests and arrest proportions

Complaints per 1,000,000 riders per month

6.065 (1.420, 10.711)

− 2.359 (− 6.891, 2.173)

 Assault

0.913 (0.419, 1.406)

− 0.309 (− 0.783, 0.166)

 Criminal Mischief

0.578 (− 0.371, 1.527)

− 0.636 (− 1.546, 0.274)

 Grand Larceny

0.240 (− 0.303, 0.783)

− 0.230 (− 0.764, 0.305)

 Harassment

0.942 (0.287, 1.598)

− 0.536 (− 1.180, 0.107)

 Theft of Services

− 0.080 (− 0.198, 0.038)

0.096 (− 0.021, 0.213)

Arrests per 1,000,000 riders per month

− 0.140 (− 3.402, 3.123)

1.278 (− 2.038, 4.594)

 Assault

0.221 (− 0.004, 0.447)

− 0.074 (− 0.295, 0.146)

 Criminal Mischief

− 0.107 (− 0.728, 0.514)

− 0.028 (− 0.805, 0.749)

 Grand Larceny

0.056 (− 0.021, 0.134)

− 0.020 (− 0.096, 0.057)

 Harassment

− 0.003 (− 0.006, 0.000)

0.004 (0.001, 0.007)

 Theft of Services

0.066 (− 1.212, 1.344)

0.494 (− 0.781, 1.770)

Proportion of arrests by race

 Asian

− 0.003 (− 0.011, 0.005)

0.003 (− 0.004, 0.011)

 Black

− 0.005 (− 0.041, 0.031)

0.013 (− 0.022, 0.048)

 Black Hispanic

0.012 (− 0.007, 0.030)

− 0.002 (− 0.020, 0.016)

 White

− 0.000 (− 0.014, 0.014)

− 0.024 (− 0.038, − 0.010)

 White Hispanic

− 0.003 (− 0.030, 0.023)

0.009 (− 0.017, 0.035)

Proportion of arrests by sex

 Female

0.015 (− 0.018, 0.049)

− 0.004 (− 0.041, 0.033)

 Male

− 0.005 (− 0.024, 0.015)

0.008 (− 0.011, 0.027)

Proportion of arrests by age

 < 18

0.016 (− 0.020, 0.052)

0.002 (− 0.029, 0.032)

 18–24

0.026 (− 0.073, 0.124)

0.005 (− 0.080, 0.089)

 25–44

− 0.026 (− 0.109, 0.057)

− 0.021 (− 0.095, 0.054)

 45–64

0.008 (− 0.036, 0.052)

0.000 (− 0.043, 0.044)

Proportion of arrests by borough

 Bronx

− 0.023 (− 0.095, 0.048)

0.026 (− 0.044, 0.096)

 Brooklyn

− 0.036 (− 0.138, 0.066)

0.045 (− 0.084, 0.174)

 Manhattan

0.010 (− 0.032, 0.053)

− 0.130 (− 0.172, − 0.088)

 Queens

0.017 (− 0.006, 0.040)

− 0.015 (− 0.037, 0.008)